In 2002, certain scientists working for the Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Program at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention noticed a peculiar situation. The price of garlic in China had risen dramatically in a short time. This was just prior to the SARS epidemic of 2003 which originated in Asia.
Why would garlic rise in price over 10 times its original price in so short a time? Garlic is considered to be a “cure-all” in many Asian cultures. Some observers considered the “run” on garlic was really an advanced sign of the coming epidemic in 2003. SARS was the predecessor of COVID.
Fast forward to 2019. Satellite images from China revealed many cars driving to hospitals far more than usual. In early 2020, China experienced another dramatic rise in the price of garlic. Is there a connection?
Frequently, researchers see indications of a potential outbreak prior to people getting sick and needing hospital care. These early warning signs can be crucial if we can learn to pinpoint and act on them. However, signs like a run on garlic must be integrated into our overall system that filters and analyzes data from many sources. We may be able to use that data to spot new diseases more efficiently and slow the spread sooner.
This innovation could take the form of a network of tools that search for signs of new infections, detect new pathogens at their first appearance, and identify, develop, and deploy therapies. Some scientists have suggested this could be a type of “immune system” for the entire globe.
This system might integrate a variety of existing tools, like monitoring demand and prices for traditional non-prescription medicinal therapies, monitoring public sewers for pathogens in wastewater, and analyzing traffic patterns. In addition, it would integrate additional strategies that make it possible to intervene in the earliest stages of a new pathogens spread. They would seek novel pathogens in the water, soil, or air. Then they would sequence their DNA or RNA to analyze the molecules and identify potential therapies.
The systems might use biosensors that could detect pathogens already living in organisms like plants and animals in tropical regions that are rich in biodiversity, which is where many new infectious diseases come from. The sensors could transmit data to supercomputing networks for analysis. Not all microbes are harmful. The supercomputers would need models based on known harmful microbes to better predict which new microbes might be pathogens for humans.
When a harmful microbe is detected, the supercomputer could rapidly scan databases of existing therapies that might be effective against it. It may be possible that the computer could produce a customized mRNA vaccine to target a specific pathogen, similar to the COVID-19 vaccines currently offered.
Already, some of these factors are in play. Supercomputers played a crucial role in the fight against COVID-19 by identifying how the virus behaves, how long droplets may linger in the air, and which gene (F8A2) may be why some individuals are more susceptible to COVID-19 than others. Researchers have also pinpointed two existing drugs that may fight COVID-19 by scanning a database collection of 1,600 therapies.
Some scientists hypothesize that building such a monitoring system around the globe may help prevent the harm caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
When this global system is in place to identify potential treatments for future outbreaks, they can also be used to help determine the method to respond, such as conventional treatments or more experimental approaches. Treatments may be added to rain or drinking water along with chemicals that time-limit the therapy. This is common now. Many communities cloud-seed using silver iodide to generate rain. Many Americans drink tap water with fluoride added. Food products are frequently enriched with supplements. These automated solutions remove humans from the process. In situations like COVID-19, a global system could reduce the time it takes to respond to a biothreat.
This kind of global scaling of monitoring pathogens and delivering therapeutics would raise legitimate concerns about privacy and personal choice. Steps would need to be taken to avoid the system from becoming a global surveillance state. It may start with one country in a pilot program. The key would be the transparency of the system and the standards for ethical use of the data.
If a global system for mitigating disease outbreaks works, it may be integrated to address other issues like food shortages. This would be a huge undertaking. But, when considering the loss and suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic, it may be worth it.