The debates about the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccines may continue for years. However, history has given us an interesting example to reflect on. For several decades after the measles vaccine was introduced, the measles death rate rose. A key reason this occurred is that the vaccine made adults, infants, and expectant mothers more susceptible.
Early in the 20th century, measles resulted in death for millions of people every year. Then, the death rates in developed countries began to drop by about 98% by the 1960s. In the United Kingdom, the rate of death dropped an amazing 99.96%. It was after this astounding development that the measles vaccine was introduced.
The measles death rate continued to drop through the 1970s. Some scientists believed the vaccine contributed to the further decline. Other scientists pointed out that most infectious diseases declined dramatically during the 20th century, including some like scarlet fever even though a vaccine was never developed.
Most scientists agree in general that the decline in infectious disease in the industrialized world can be attributed to better nutrition, sanitation, and health care. In the U.S., the death rate dropped by about 98%, from about 10 per 100,000 population a century ago to one-fifth of one person by 1963, the year measles vaccines made their American debut. Both before and after vaccination started, victims tended to be poor.
A study in the American Journal of Public Health, “Measles mortality in the United States 1971-1975,” found the measles death rate to be almost 10 times higher among families whose median income was less than $5,000 than among families whose income exceeded a modest $10,000. Families outside metropolitan areas, who tended to have poor healthcare, had three times the death rate.
A prior study published in the American Journal of Epidemiology by the CDC found similar unfortunate results on the measles death rate on poorer communities. Race played a role because black children were disproportionately affected due to their higher rates of poverty at the time.
Measles also impacted children with underlying conditions that made them vulnerable. This included children with physical or mental disabilities or both. The study suggested that vulnerable populations should be vaccinated against measles instead of the entire population.
Prior to the vaccine rollout, measles was typically a benign childhood illness, which provided lifelong immunity. Those children then avoided dangerous adult infections. Now in the vaccine era, adults make up 25% to 50% of all measles cases. Most of them also involved pneumonia and around 25% require hospitalization.
In addition, measles during pregnancies has risen significantly because expectant mothers no longer have lifetime immunity. Today’s vaccinated expectant mothers are at risk because the measles vaccine lessens over time and fails to protect against measles.
One study in Texas looked at 12 pregnant women and one who had just given birth. All of them had measles. One died, seven suffered from hepatitis, seven had pneumonia, four experienced premature labor, and one lost her baby to miscarriage. Another study of eight pregnancies in which the mothers had measles showed that three babies were lost to miscarriage or stillbirth, four babies were born with congenital measles, two mothers had pneumonia, and one suffered from hemorrhagic shock. That study was in Japan. A study in Los Angeles of 58 pregnancies found 21 ended early (induced abortions, miscarriage, and preterm deliveries), 15 had pneumonia, 35 were hospitalized, and two died.
Babies are also vulnerable. Their bodies are not mature enough to receive the measles vaccination prior to age one. Thus, they are entirely dependent on antibodies they inherit from their mothers. During their first year after birth, infants have the highest rate of measles infections and incur the most lasting harm. Vaccinated mothers have little antibodies to pass on to the fetus. They have only about 25% of the number of antibodies that a mother has who had a natural infection, which leaves their infants susceptible.
These factors contributed to the increased death rates for adults and very young children, which reversed the decline in deaths from the prior decades, according to a 2004 study in the Journal of Infectious Disease, authored by researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Some scientists also point to the safety records for the measles vaccines. Soon after they were made available, the Vital Statistics of the United States began keeping track of deaths from the vaccine, along with deaths from other vaccines. By 1970, one of the two original measles vaccines was taken off market in the U.S. and Canada due to triggering an atypical measles syndrome with high rates of pneumonia. In 1975, the second vaccine was also taken off market for causing 103-degrees-plus fevers and other severe side effects. Two variants of this vaccine did not make it either.
A measles vaccine became a part of the combination MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine in the 1980s. That was withdrawn in 1990 in Canada. The manufacturer withdrew it from the U.S., Sweden, and Japan after the MMR vaccine caused meningitis, febrile convulsions, deaths, and deafness. The second version of the MMR vaccine is now in use and believed to be safe.
In addition to serious safety concerns, measles vaccines have some considerable records of failing to stop outbreaks. As described in “Measles Elimination in Canada”, a 2004 report authored by Canadian government officials and academics, “despite virtually 100% documented one-dose coverage in some regions, large outbreaks of measles involving thousands of cases persisted … Clearly, because of primary vaccine failure, Canada’s one-dose program was insufficient.” Adding a second dose of the vaccine for children initially seemed to tamp down on outbreaks. However, this has also been failing with outbreaks occurring among those who have received the recommended vaccine and infants too young to receive the vaccine. Now public health experts are looking at including second doses for adults and earlier child vaccinations to provide a solution.
Thus, it doesn’t appear that the science is conclusive, which makes it more difficult for parents to weigh the risks to their children. Some parents put their trust in their country’s public health authorities. Other parents weigh the risks differently and forgo the vaccine. The demographics of these generally have a mother who is at least 30 years old, at least one college degree, and an annual household income of at least $75,000. In the absence of studies showing vaccinated children to be healthier than those unvaccinated, the parents in these educated households have determined that the numbers argue against vaccination.